After Midterm Defeat, Trump May Turn to Foreign Policy as Domestic Agenda Faces Obstacles

The Republican defeat in the U.S. midterm elections is expected to make it harder for President Donald Trump to advance his domestic agenda and could lead him to focus more heavily on foreign policy. With Democrats set to control Congress, Trump may encounter resistance to legislation and government funding, while seeking a higher profile in international negotiations and military actions, where presidents have greater latitude.

Political scientist Gustavo Menon said a foreign policy pivot could be an effort to sidestep domestic political setbacks rather than a response to voters’ concerns. He said presidents who lose control of Congress often turn toward areas where they rely less on lawmakers, but noted that voters had also penalized Trump over foreign policy. Dissatisfaction with the economy and foreign affairs weighed on Republicans: a NORC and Washington Post survey of more than 90,000 voters found that over half considered the economy and jobs among the country’s leading problems. Among those voters, Democrats held a 15-percentage-point advantage in House races.

The war with Iran also contributed to the administration’s political difficulties, according to the report. More than 60% of voters who identified the conflict as a major national issue voted for Democratic candidates. The U.S. military campaign also put pressure on energy prices and heightened concerns about the cost of living. Menon described a shift toward international affairs as “a forward escape, not a response to the voters,” and warned that Latin America and the Caribbean could become arenas for displays of U.S. force.

Trump acknowledged the defeat on Wednesday, Nov. 4, and said he was willing to work with Democrats, who are expected to take control of Congress. He congratulated them, saying they had done a good job and that he could work with them on many issues. At the same time, he warned that he could use his executive power to block Democratic proposals. Trump said he might veto any bill the party sent him, even if it had broad support, describing a hypothetical scenario in which he returned dozens of popular bills with a “Veto” stamp.

The new congressional majority could negotiate over budget legislation, potentially raising the risk of a government shutdown, and could resist nominations to key positions. Democrats would also have greater power to investigate the administration through hearings and subpoenas. Possible subjects include the Iran war, attacks on vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, and changes to the armed forces associated with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Although the executive branch can continue deportation policies, funding for those operations could become a major budget dispute. Menon said the likeliest outcome was mutual gridlock between the White House and Congress and a broader conflict between branches of government.

The president can use executive orders, sanctions, tariffs, executive agreements and some military decisions to pursue foreign policy without initial congressional authorization. Menon noted that the U.S. offensive against Iran, which began Feb. 28, was launched without congressional approval. U.S. law limits military operations conducted without authorization, including a 60-day period in which the president must end the action or seek approval; Congress also controls funding. Menon said Trump’s options include unilateral measures, limited strikes and special operations, as well as a personal style of diplomacy. The incoming lawmakers are not scheduled to take office until Jan. 3, so Trump will continue working with the current Congress until then.

Menon identified four possible international priorities for Trump as he tries to address the political and economic effects of the election loss. A deal with Iran could ease pressure on fuel prices and inflation and give Trump a diplomatic achievement to promote. U.S.-mediated negotiations over the war in Ukraine could offer another chance to seek an agreement and claim a role in resolving the conflict. A third avenue would be trade and investment agreements, especially with Asian countries, including China, though the election result could weaken Trump’s leverage. In Latin America, Menon said, the president could face lower domestic political costs for showing force and might even consider military intervention in Cuba, which he described as a particularly concerning possibility for the region.

The defeat could also weaken Trump’s bargaining position with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Menon said. Other governments may recognize that Trump’s time in office is limited and that Congress could undo some commitments he makes, creating a constraint on his ability to secure lasting agreements.